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In Times Thick and Thin: New Studies in Labor Market Research
By Bill Schweke on 02/17/2011 @ 11:10 AM
The W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research has continued doing much appreciated work in publishing leading-edge scholarly, but useful research with three new books and the findings from a recent conference. Let’s start with the books.
Timothy Bartik’s “Investing in Kids: Early Childhood Programs and Local Economic Development” builds on his earlier work on the topic by describing a unique angle – why and how localities can benefit from effective programs that aid disadvantaged toddlers and youngsters.
Rachel Connelly and Jean Kummel’s work on “The Time Use of Mothers in the United States at the Beginning of the 21st Century” provides insights on how mothers choose to spend their time – paid and unpaid work, care giving, their own further schooling, and so on. It then explores the public policy implications of this phenomenon, including reforms in taxation, education and child cares subsidies.
Andrew Feldman looks at “What Works in Work-First Welfare”, examining the issues involved in providing more successful employment services in New York City.
In the fall of 2010, the Upjohn Institute held a conference on the causes and consequences of unemployment. A number of fine papers were presented, which drew the following conclusions:
- States that have enacted programs to provide tax credits for job growth during the past 20 years have often benefited from such efforts. But whether they do or do not depends greatly on the specific design features and the degree to which they avoid rewarding the firm for what it already intended to do.
- There is a massive job gap in the US now. If the country is to restore the population to employment ratio to the level it was in December, 2007, it must create 320,000 net jobs per month for five years. The job shortfall is also harming lower-educated citizens and communities plagued by higher than average levels of joblessness.
- A direct job creation subsidy to employers – either through the tax code or grants will have a bigger bang per buck than the Administration’s earlier stimulus program. The average cost per job created was about $112,000, while other approaches would be in the $5,000 to $28,000 per job generated.
- Financial crashes that increased unemployment and lowered investment income for retirement have differential impacts, depending on the skill level and income of the household. Although harmed, more advantaged older workers fare better than less affluent peers. They put off their retirement, while the low-income older workers are forced to withdraw from the labor market and join the long term unemployed.
- The business cycle lowers contribution levels to 401 (k) accounts and encourages “herd” investing (where they invest more when markets are high, and avoid them when the stock market is low). One additional implication is that projections of the adequacy of retirement incomes in the future are way off, exaggerating the assets level that has been achieved.
- After welfare reform, single working mothers that lose their jobs are less likely to use Unemployment Insurance than expected. But UI is more likely to be used by this group for support than cash assistance (welfare).
- The percentage of UI recipients exhausting their entitlement than has increased significantly since the mid-seventies. It appears to be caused by an increase in the number of permanent terminations, rather than traditional layoffs.
- Black males and females are harmed more by plant closures than their white counterparts.
- Between 2007 and 2009, involuntary part-time employment more than doubled.
For more information, go to www.upjohninst.org. More details, regarding the conference research findings can be found in the January 2011 issue of Upjohn’s “Employment Research” newsletter. Books can be ordered there as well.
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