Stay Informed!

By Sean Luechtefeld on 08/17/2010 @ 12:01 PM

Tags: Innovation, Federal Policy

Although the US is formally beyond the “Great Recession,” signs of economic turmoil remain among us. Daily we hear about the latest employment report indicating less-than-expected job creation, quarterly earning reports from major corporations suggesting slowed economic recovery and stock losses around the globe that show the US isn’t alone in this post-recession world. With the milieu of different messages about the economy, it’s hard to tell what’s working, what isn’t and how things really are.

One resource I came across a couple weeks ago helps shed some light on these questions. A report released by the Economic Policy Institute’s Economic Analysis and Research Network (EARN) asks the question of what the recession would have been like had we not taken steps as a nation to promote recovery. Controversial efforts like the stimulus package and TARP aren’t universally popular, and the verdict is still out regarding their effectiveness.

Download the EARN report, How the Great Recession was Brought to an End, here.

In short, EARN used Moody’s analytics to determine that without the stimulus or TARP, the US GDP for 2010 would be about 11.5% lower, there would be about 8.5 million fewer jobs and the currency would be undergoing deflation. Of the measures that neutralized some of these effects, TARP has definitely been more effective, although both measures in tandem helped pull the nation from the brink of depression. Also of interest from this report was the finding that the estimates of the impacts of these measures are indeed consistent with the estimates published by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office and from officials within the Obama Administration. Despite rampant skepticism, these measures are pretty much on-par with previous expectations.

So, what do you think? How consistent is this report with what you previously knew? Know of any other resources that help determine the health of economic fixes? Use the comments section below to share!

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